International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgrades 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%

Key facts

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global growth projection by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%.
• The IMF now assumes an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5 per cent, down from around 25 per cent in earlier estimates.
• The IMF upgraded its U.S. growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4 per cent and trimmed the 2027 outlook to 2.0 per cent.
• Spain’s 2026 forecast was raised to 2.3 per cent, while Britain’s projection remained unchanged at 1.3 per cent.
• China’s 2026 growth forecast was lifted to 4.5 per cent, below its stronger-than-expected 5 per cent performance in 2025.
• The euro zone 2026 projection was lifted to 1.3 per cent, driven by higher public spending in Germany and better performance in Spain and Ireland.
• Brazil’s 2026 forecast was cut to 1.6 per cent as tighter monetary policy weighs on growth.
• Global inflation is expected to ease from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.