Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) projects India’s real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26.

Key facts

• MoSPI’s First Advance Estimates place FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4%, up from 6.5% in FY25.
• Nominal GDP growth for FY26 is estimated at 8.0%.
• Real gross value added (GVA) is projected to rise 7.3% in FY26, with the services sector identified as the key growth engine.
• Private consumption growth eased to 7% YoY in FY25 versus 7.2% in the previous fiscal.
• Manufacturing GVA growth is estimated at 7% and Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services plus Public Administration, Defence & Other Services are estimated to grow 9.9% at constant prices in FY26.
• Agriculture and allied sector GVA growth is pegged at 3.1% while Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services GVA growth is moderate at 2.1% in FY26.
• Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecasted FY26 GDP growth at 7.3% in its December MPC meeting.
• CRISIL revised its FY26 GDP growth forecast to 7% after Q2 FY26 data showed 8.2% growth, the fastest in six quarters.
• India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) pegs FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4% and nominal GDP growth at 9%.
• Bank of Baroda projects FY26 GDP growth in the 7.4%-7.6% range, noting risks from decelerating exports to the US.
• SBI Capital Markets expects FY26 real GDP growth to exceed 7% and nominal GDP growth at around 8.5% y/y.
• Acuité Ratings & Research revised FY26 GDP growth estimate to 7.2% from 6.6% after Q2 data.
• The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for FY26 will be released on 27 February 2026 and will incorporate a base revision to 2022-23.