S&P Global Ratings (S&P) flags safeguard duties raise steel import parity floor

Key facts

• India extended safeguard duties on select steel products until April 2028, starting at 12 per cent and tapering to 11 per cent.
• The Director General Trade Remedies (DGTR) investigation found imports of specific steel products had increased in a recent, sudden, sharp and significant manner, causing and threatening serious injury to domestic producers.
• Benchmark hot rolled coil prices corrected by more than 10 per cent to Rs 46,000 per ton in early December 2025 from a high of Rs 52,500 per ton in May 2025.
• S&P assumes average prices of Rs 48,000 per ton over the next 12 to 18 months.
• S&P projects domestic steel consumption will expand at 8 per cent annually over the next three to four years, significantly higher than the 2-3 per cent global average.
• With the levy in place, import parity increases by about Rs 6,500 per ton.
• If current prices are maintained at Rs 50,000 per ton, this could increase the aggregate earnings of select steel companies representing 50 per cent of India's total steel output by about 10 per cent.