Crisil Intelligence Forecasts 7.1 Per Cent India GDP Growth for FY27

Key facts

• Crisil Intelligence expects India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to moderate to 7.1 per cent in FY27.
• The conflict in West Asia is identified as a downside risk to the economic outlook due to its impact on crude oil and commodity prices.
• Retail inflation is projected to rise to 4.3 per cent in FY27 from an estimated 2.5 per cent in FY26.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold the repo rate steady in FY27 to focus on transmitting the 125 basis points (bps) rate cut implemented in calendar year 2025.
• Headline retail inflation is likely to remain close to the central value of the RBI tolerance band.
• The new Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2024 series has a reduced weight for food, which is expected to contain the upside to headline inflation.
• Export growth is anticipated to maintain momentum, supported by lower United States (US) tariffs relative to FY26 and robust services exports.
• Economic growth will be supported by robust private consumption and a recovery in private capital expenditure (capex) driven by emerging sectors.
• Inflation is expected to normalise assuming a normal monsoon in 2026 and benign food prices.