Fitch Ratings Lowers India FY27 GDP Growth Projection to 6.4 Per Cent

Key facts

• Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has lowered India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for the financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.4 per cent from the previous estimate of 6.7 per cent.
• The agency expects economic growth to ease from 7.4 per cent in FY26 as rising prices due to the US-Iran war erode real incomes and dampen consumer spending.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent and increased its inflation projection to 5.1 per cent.
• Fitch revised its 2026 average price assumption for Brent crude oil to USD 87 per barrel and expects India's inflation to reach 5.3 per cent by the end of the calendar year.
• The agency expects the RBI to increase the policy rate to 5.5 per cent from 5.25 per cent and projects the exchange rate to average 97.50 to a dollar in the current fiscal.