State Bank of India (SBI) Research projects India's Q1 FY27 GDP growth at around 7%

Key facts

• India's economy is likely to have expanded by around 7% in the April-June quarter of FY27.
• SBI Research expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep policy rates unchanged in the near term.
• CPI inflation is projected to remain above 5% over the next two quarters, with average inflation for FY27 likely around 5%.
• RBI's outstanding short-term forward positions declined by about $13 billion by end of June, including a $10 billion reduction in contracts with maturities up to one month.
• Long-term forward positions increased from $56 billion to $64 billion.
• The rupee depreciated 11.26% since April 1, 2025, but has appreciated about 1.2% from July 24 levels.
• Surplus rainfall in July reduced the nationwide rainfall deficit to 13%, with kharif sowing only 4.7% below the corresponding period in 2025.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) entered positive territory for the first time during the week ended July 26.
• Inflation for Q1 FY27 stood at 3.9%.
• Industry and personal loans together accounted for nearly 63% of total incremental credit growth during April-June 2026.
• Loans against gold jewellery accounted for 42% of incremental personal loan growth, amounting to about ₹74,200 crore out of ₹1.74 lakh crore.