State Bank of India (SBI) Forecasts India's Transition to Upper-Middle-Income Status by 2030

Key facts

• State Bank of India (SBI) projects India to reach a per capita income of $4,000 by 2030, transitioning the nation into the upper-middle-income category alongside China and Indonesia.
• India moved from a low-income to a lower-middle-income economy in 2007, with per capita gross national income (GNI) rising from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007.
• The Indian economy reached $1 trillion six decades after independence, $2 trillion by 2014, $3 trillion by 2021, and is projected to reach $4 trillion by 2025.
• The economy is expected to cross the $5 trillion threshold in approximately two years.
• India’s per capita income reached $1,000 in 2009, doubled to $2,000 in 2019, and is projected to touch $3,000 by 2026.
• India’s percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has risen from the 92nd percentile to the 95th percentile.
• To reach the current high-income threshold of $13,936 by 2047, India’s per capita GNI must grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 7.5%.
• If the high-income threshold increases to $18,000 by 2047, the required annual growth rate for per capita GNI would rise to 8.9%.
• Achieving the Viksit Bharat 2047 targets would imply a nominal GDP growth in dollar terms of approximately 11.5% over the next two decades.
• The number of high-income countries globally has more than doubled to 87 in 2024, while low-income countries have decreased to 26.