State Bank of India (SBI) Projects 7.5% GDP Growth for FY26

Key facts

• The State Bank of India (SBI) projects India’s real GDP growth for FY26 could reach 7.5% following the revision of the base year to 2022-23.
• The National Statistical Office (NSO) first advance estimates place real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, an increase from the 6.5% recorded in FY25.
• The NSO projects Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3% and nominal GDP growth at 8% for the FY26 period.
• Per capita national income is projected to increase by ₹16,025 annually to reach ₹2,47,487 in FY26.
• The services sector is expected to expand by 9.1% in FY26, compared to the 7.2% growth recorded in the previous year.
• Industrial growth is estimated at 6.0% for FY26, supported by a manufacturing output growth of 7.0%.
• Agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1% in FY26, down from 4.6% in FY25.
• Mining output is expected to decline by 0.7% in FY26, compared with a growth of 2.7% in FY25.
• The historical gap between GDP growth estimates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the NSO has remained within a range of 20–30 basis points.
• The NSO is scheduled to release the second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, on February 27, 2026.