Goldman Sachs raises India CY26 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Forecast to 6.9%

Key facts

• Goldman Sachs has raised India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for calendar year 2026 by 20 basis points to 6.9 per cent.
• The upward revision follows the United States (US) reducing reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from the previous 25 per cent.
• The revised 18 per cent tariff rate aligns India with other Asian economies that face US tariff rates ranging between 15 per cent and 19 per cent.
• India’s bilateral goods trade surplus with the US doubled from approximately $20 billion in CY2015 to about $40 billion in CY2025 year-to-date.
• The expansion in trade surplus was primarily driven by higher surpluses in electronics, pharmaceutical products, and textiles.
• American crude oil accounted for 7 per cent of India’s crude imports by volume in Financial Year 2026 (FY26) up to November 2025, compared to 4 per cent in FY25.