ICRA projects India’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in Q3 FY26

Key facts

• ICRA forecasts India’s YoY GDP growth at 7.2% in Q3 FY2025-26, down from 8.2% in Q2 FY2025-26.
• Services GVA growth eased to 7.8% in Q3 FY2025-26 from 9.2% in Q2 FY2025-26.
• Agriculture GVA growth slowed to 3.0% in Q3 FY2025-26 from 3.5% in Q2 FY2025-26.
• Industrial sector GVA hit a six-quarter high of 8.3% in Q3 FY2025-26 versus 7.7% in Q2 FY2025-26.
• Government of India’s gross capital expenditure contracted 23.4% YoY in Q3 FY2025-26 after 40.0% YoY growth in H1 FY2025-26.
• GoI’s gross capex fell to Rs. 2.1 trillion in Q3 FY2025-26 from Rs. 3.1 trillion in Q2 FY2025-26.
• Combined Central and state non-interest revenue expenditure rose marginally by 0.3% YoY in Q3 FY2025-26 against a 0.6% decline in Q2 FY2025-26.
• India’s services exports growth slowed to a seven-quarter low of 7.5% YoY in Q3 FY2025-26 at USD 111.2 billion.