March 2026 Arctic ice and global heat hit record lows amid rising El Niño odds

Key facts

• Arctic sea ice extent in March 2026 fell 5.7% below normal, the lowest March level ever recorded.
• Global surface temperatures for January-March 2026 ranked as the fourth-highest on record.
• March 2026 became the fourth-warmest globally at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) reached 20.97°C, the second-highest ever observed behind the 2024 El Niño peak.
• Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported daily SST levels approaching 2024 record highs.
• US NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information stated March 2026 temperatures were 1.31°C above the 20th-century average, tying 2024 as the second-warmest March.
• All ten warmest March records since 1850 have occurred after 2015.
• Europe recorded its second-warmest March with notably drier conditions.
• Significant heat anomalies occurred across the western United States, much of the Arctic, northeast Russia, and parts of Antarctica.
• Cooler-than-average conditions persisted in Alaska, most of Canada, southern Greenland, and northwest Siberia.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions through April-June 2026.
• The likelihood of El Niño rises to 61% between May-July 2026 and 85% into September 2026.