Super El Niño Forecast for 2026 and its Potential Impact on India

Key facts

• El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather pattern, which also includes La Niña.
• A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures increase by at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal and is monitored using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
• The super El Niño of 1877-78 caused at least 50 million deaths globally, including 12.2 to 29.3 million in India, 19.5 to 30 million in China, and around 2 million in Brazil, alongside outbreaks of malaria, plague, dysentery, smallpox, and cholera.
• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that central equatorial Pacific Ocean water temperatures could potentially exceed 3 degrees Celsius above average in late 2026.
• In India, below-normal rainfall may reduce harvests of rice, cotton, soyabeans, wheat, and rapeseed, impacting an agricultural sector that accounts for 18% of the nearly $4 trillion (Rs. ~3,32,00,000 crore) economy and a hydropower sector that provides 6% of the power mix.