India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) Raises India FY27 GDP Growth Forecast to 6.8%

Key facts

• India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) raised India's FY27 real GDP growth forecast by 10 basis points to 6.8% from 6.7%.
• Ind-Ra lowered its baseline crude oil price assumption for FY27 to $85 per barrel from $95 per barrel.
• Ind-Ra flagged El Niño weather pattern and West Asia conflict as downside risks to FY27 GDP growth.
• Ind-Ra projected agriculture GVA growth to slow to 2% in FY27 from 3% in FY26.
• Ind-Ra projected WPI inflation to rise to 8.5% in FY27 from 0.4% in FY26, and CPI inflation to average 4.9%.
• Ind-Ra expected retail inflation to peak at 5.9% in Q3FY27 before moderating to 5% in Q4FY27.
• Ind-Ra expected the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain status quo on policy rates and stance for the rest of FY27.
• Ind-Ra projected private consumption expenditure growth to moderate to 7.2% in FY27 from 7.7% in FY26.
• Ind-Ra projected current account deficit to widen to 1.5% of GDP in FY27 from 0.6% in FY26.
• Ind-Ra projected gross fixed capital formation to grow 8% in FY27, sustained by public sector capital expenditure.