S&P Global Ratings raises India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.1%

Key facts

• S&P Global Ratings revised India’s FY27 growth forecast upward to 7.1%.
• The agency lifted its FY28 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%.
• India’s GDP is officially estimated to expand 7.6% in FY26.
• S&P projects inflation to rise to 4.3% in FY27 and expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep rates unchanged with a neutral stance.
• The RBI monetary policy committee held the repo rate at 6.50% in February and is scheduled to meet early next week.
• S&P assumes Brent crude to average $92 per barrel in the June quarter and around $80 per barrel in 2026.
• In a severe disruption scenario, Brent could average $185 per barrel in the June quarter and nearly $130 per barrel in 2026.
• S&P expects one 25 bps rate hike by India’s central bank in the second half if energy-driven inflation persists.