World Trade Organization forecasts global trade growth to slow to 1.4-1.9% in 2026 amid Middle East conflict risks

Key facts

• World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts global merchandise trade growth to slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025.
• If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 due to the Middle East conflict, global trade in goods could slow further to 1.4%.
• A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would choke one-third of fertilizer urea imports, hitting major producers like India, Thailand, Brazil.
• Trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of global trade growth in 2025 and increased by 21.9% year-on-year to $4.18 trillion.
• Asia will lead merchandise import growth in 2026 with imports up 3.3% and exports up 3.5%, followed by Africa with 3.2% imports and 1.2% exports.
• Around 72% of world trade is being conducted on a Most-Favoured-Nation basis, down from about 80% at the start of last year.